Sunday, April 26, 2009

'Table Selection' For Daily Fantasy Baseball

Pro poker players sometimes talk about 'table selection'. Basically, the idea is to avoid playing against players who are better than you, and seek out players who are worse. In most cases, table selection will have more impact on results than any amount of practice. No matter how good you are, there's always someone better. And no matter how bad you are, there's always someone worse.

The idea of table selection can be applied in several ways to Draftbug and other daily fantasy baseball contests.

The first is very similar to how it's applied in poker. Take notes on your opponents, avoid those who are better players than you, and seek out games against those who are worse. While it's unlikely that you'll have enough contests against most opponents to be able to have statistically significant results, some players will be so weak that you can look at their picks and identify obvious bad picks and mistakes. I know that at least one of our group is taking detailed notes, and it's something that anyone truly seeking to become a professional should do.

The second approach to table selection in daily fantasy contests is something that I've been doing. On days when I don't like the lineups I'm able to create, I'm playing much less heavily than on days when I do like the lineups. I'm averaging about $20 - $25 of contests, but on days when my top rated players are all expensive stars, and I expect my lineup to look just like everyone else's, I'm entering much less. On days when I can identify at least 2 or 3 players who I think are great bargains due to their matchups, I'm playing as much as $30 of contests.

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