Predicting Homeruns in April

So at the beginning of the season I entered into 4 April Home Run Derby’s at Draft Bug for a total of $17 + Freeroll and I haven't really looked at them since entering, so I thought now was as good a time as any.

I’m 1st in 2 of them (4 and 6 person), 6th in a 23 person and 14th in the 200 person Freeroll. Pretty decent considering I had no idea who to take, so all I did was guess who would finish with the most HR’s and pick them. The numbers below suggest that was a terrible strategy.



In 2007 of the top 15 in the month of April, 5 were in the top 12 of 2007. In 2008 it was worse with only Quentin being in the top 12 of both April and 2008. How many HR you have in April has very little bering where you place for total HR. So picking your team based on total season HR is a very poor strategy. I would not be surprised if over the last 10 or so days in April if I began to fall and didn't place in any of them.