Tuesday, April 14, 2009
4/12-4/13: Results. Variance or Lack of Skill?
Over the past two two combined, I've entered 8 contests of various types (2 heads up, 3 six person, 3 ten person) for a total of $25.00 and managed only a tied for second place in one of the ten person contests. Total prizes: $2.25. Total invested to date is $61.40, total prizes to date are $57.25. Return on investment is -6.8%. For the most part, my chances were killed by the poor performances by Tim Lincecum and Kevin Slowey the past two days. I knew that by using the same starting pitcher in most contests I was taking a 'feast or famine' approach, but felt that Lincecum was such a clear standout and Slowey such a good value at the price that it was worth it. My sample size is very small so far. I think this is variance more than a true indication of my ability to win with my current methods. That said, why leave things to chance. I know of lots I can do to improve my projections, and need to put aside some time to begin making changes. I'll be away Wednesday and Thursday, but will try to put some of the changes into place over the weekend.
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You can consistently make accurate projections and still wind up losing. It's definitely variance.
ReplyDeleteBaseball is the highest variance game because one position (SP) accounts for so much of your score.
Varying your roster, or "hedging", is unlikely to be profitable over the long run. You will split wins and losses and lose to the rake.
The only scenario where hedging might work is if there are tons of multis, where one of your rosters winning can cover all of your buy-ins.