Short Update

With baseball season fast approaching, I've been working on getting my statistical model ready for opening day - updating team offensive projections, player projections, and park factors. Once I'm done with that I can actually start working on improving some aspects of the model that need tweaking - things have been so busy that I haven't had a chance to work on it much recently, unlike last offseason. Which reminds me of another characteristic that certainly helps pros - focus! It stands to reason that you're going to have a lot more success at something if its the ONLY thing you're working on, than if you're splitting your time between multiple tasks. Another way of thinking about this is to think about two people working at the same task - one spends 30 hours per week, while the other spends 60 hours per week? All else being equal, how much more valuable is the one who spends more time? I suspect most people will say 'roughly double'. That's wrong. Not only will is he working twice as much, but he's going to be improving twice as fast! So assuming that the task has some complexitiy to it, after a while his double hours may yield triple or quadruple the results!

Josh and I spent some time chatting over the weekend about how to adjust strategy to live drafts, bankroll management, and related topics. Bankroll management and 'bet sizing' are especially tricky for daily fantasy baseball contests, since you need to figure out to what extent different contests on the same day can be treated the same way as contests on different days. There's no simply answer.