Since May 5th, I've waged a total of $119.90 and won $224.64. That's a difference of $104.74 and an ROI of 87.4%. Its not maintainable, but it's sure helped to get me out of the rut I dug myself into at the beginning of the season.
What's the difference. I'm not sure, but here is how I've been picking my teams.
1. I pick my pitcher first and spare no expense. I have no problem spending 378 on Lincecum instead of 10 on Bedard if I think he's going to have a better game by only 1 point.
2. I pick my closer last, but I put aside 90 points for him and add to that whatever remainder I have after picking my remaining 8 players.
3. 90% of the time I take Pujols at 1B.
4. 80% of the time I take either Longoria or Jones at 3B.
5. 70% of the time I take one of the Molina's at C, 20% of the time I take Mauer.
6. I really look for players playing terrible pitchers. I have no problem taking an entire OF for a total of 100 points, if the matchup is good. Gerut (30), Rasmus (6), Crisp (68), Winn (84) and Morgan (54) are just some examples.
7. After I'm done taking players, I'll often have between 100-120 points to spend on closers. I take the one whose most favored by Vegas to be on the winning team.
8. Right before game time I check the opening lineups for all the games that are already posted. Often there will be one player I took thats not in the lineup, so I have to switch them out.
So thats it. My formulas are becoming better at predicting game outcomes, and its obviously having an effect on picking single players. For fun I'm also picking a couple games each night, so you can follow these at www.kylehuberman.com or at @kylehuberman on twitter.
Until next time.
Take any pitcher pitching against the National or Diamondbacks. That is a sure sign of success.
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