tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-53336712026791178452024-03-05T05:41:48.649-08:00Draftbug MillionaireFollow along as a group of fantasy sports enthusiasts seek to launch careers as professional fantasy sports players and to become Draftbug Millionaires!
NOTE: And for a limited time...let us know if you're interested in participating!Unknownnoreply@blogger.comBlogger46125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5333671202679117845.post-4068264789859756052009-06-08T17:45:00.000-07:002010-01-01T15:09:43.147-08:00From this point forward, we are going to keep this chart near the top of our webpage. This will allow our loyal readers (all 5 of you, ha ha!) to quickly see how we're doing in our quest to become Draftbug Millionaires. As you can see, Waiver Wire is setting the pace thru the early part of the baseball season. Drinks are on him!<br /><br />You may click on the image to get a better look. Let us know if you have any comments.<br /><br /><a href="http://steveschroeder.us/Update.jpg"><img style="DISPLAY: block; MARGIN: 0px auto 10px; WIDTH: 390px; CURSOR: hand; HEIGHT: 238px; TEXT-ALIGN: center" alt="" src="http://steveschroeder.us/Update.jpg" border="0" /></a>Stevehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10350263587492672307noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5333671202679117845.post-42862327405526608632009-05-31T04:12:00.000-07:002009-05-31T04:17:44.741-07:00Stupid Manager TricksIf you've looked at the ROI in our chart lately, things have obviously been going well for me. I did learn a new way of messing up a couple of days ago though. According to the MLB.com schedule page, Geer was going to start for San Diego on Friday, and Young on Saturday. I loaded up on 4 Rockies hitters against Geer (who is just bad) for Friday, and made a mental note to use Fowler (not one of the four) against the easy-to-steal-on Young for Saturday. Somewhere along the way, Geer and Young were flip-flopped in the Padres rotation, and I ended up having four hitters face a pretty good pitcher (in Young), and missed out on using the one guy I would have wanted against him (Fowler). I can't remember what the results were, but lesson learned in any case...if you plan your lineups ways in advance, it can't hurt to recheck the scheduled starters as 'lineup lock time' approaches. I can't honestly say that I'm going to do that, but if I ever get to the point where I'm thinking about earning my primary income from these games, I definitely would do so.Unknownnoreply@blogger.com3tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5333671202679117845.post-14150481342068029642009-05-14T15:41:00.000-07:002009-05-14T16:23:46.674-07:00On a RollI'm on a roll. An absolute huge roll. <div><br /></div><div>Since May 5th, I've waged a total of $119.90 and won $224.64. That's a difference of $104.74 and an ROI of 87.4%. Its not maintainable, but it's sure helped to get me out of the rut I dug myself into at the beginning of the season. </div><div><br /></div><div>What's the difference. I'm not sure, but here is how I've been picking my teams.</div><div><br /></div><div>1. I pick my pitcher first and spare no expense. I have no problem spending 378 on Lincecum instead of 10 on Bedard if I think he's going to have a better game by only 1 point. </div><div><br /></div><div>2. I pick my closer last, but I put aside 90 points for him and add to that whatever remainder I have after picking my remaining 8 players. </div><div><br /></div><div>3. 90% of the time I take Pujols at 1B.</div><div><br /></div><div>4. 80% of the time I take either Longoria or Jones at 3B.</div><div><br /></div><div>5. 70% of the time I take one of the Molina's at C, 20% of the time I take Mauer.</div><div><br /></div><div>6. I really look for players playing terrible pitchers. I have no problem taking an entire OF for a total of 100 points, if the matchup is good. Gerut (30), Rasmus (6), Crisp (68), Winn (84) and Morgan (54) are just some examples.</div><div><br /></div><div>7. After I'm done taking players, I'll often have between 100-120 points to spend on closers. I take the one whose most favored by Vegas to be on the winning team. </div><div><br /></div><div>8. Right before game time I check the opening lineups for all the games that are already posted. Often there will be one player I took thats not in the lineup, so I have to switch them out. </div><div><br /></div><div>So thats it. My formulas are becoming better at predicting game outcomes, and its obviously having an effect on picking single players. For fun I'm also picking a couple games each night, so you can follow these at <a href="http://www.kylehuberman.com/">www.kylehuberman.com</a> or at <a href="http://twitter.com/kylehuberman">@kylehuberman</a> on twitter. </div><div><br /></div><div>Until next time.</div>icehubehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08317761058791820452noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5333671202679117845.post-26159072085406148652009-05-10T16:54:00.000-07:002009-05-10T17:12:06.697-07:00Thru Three WeeksAfter three weeks of action at Draftbug this MLB season, I can't say that stv1313 is necessarily on the road to riches, but I'm still trying.<br /><br />After spending over $200 in each of the first two weeks, I decided to slow down my play this past week. Spending less than $100, I experienced an ROI of 23.49% the past seven days. Inch by inch, I'm getting closer and closer to being "in the black". If nothing else, I'm happy to see that my losses only approximate the rake I've given to the site. Accordingly, I doubt that anyone on the site rates me a fish.<br /><br />Day after day, I believe that I'm discovering the values in the Draftbug database. I continue to use Bill Hall whenever he faces left-handed starters, and there are several other players that I'm targeting each day - depending on the matchups. As more and more data becomes available this season, I anticipate that I'll start seeing some profits very soon.<br /><br />In the interim, here's a quick summary of my weekly results so far this year. I hope this is the last time that my cumulative ROI shows a negative figure. ha ha!<br /><br /><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgF0aIQ8hL8rTFSe3Z_l_NeD6ONbsWByRNBrNuv9_OWcdAZe4Hyo996NIhITnFRQMbpktYApB_f7n1s4Lz1GlDag0ONv_MRSEvP0Tbl6ZVujmConHYIM6ct2XdODp7fJLVp7GBA-bHFzvA/s1600-h/stv1313_Update.jpg"><img id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5334347968894715986" style="DISPLAY: block; MARGIN: 0px auto 10px; WIDTH: 400px; CURSOR: hand; HEIGHT: 203px; TEXT-ALIGN: center" alt="" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgF0aIQ8hL8rTFSe3Z_l_NeD6ONbsWByRNBrNuv9_OWcdAZe4Hyo996NIhITnFRQMbpktYApB_f7n1s4Lz1GlDag0ONv_MRSEvP0Tbl6ZVujmConHYIM6ct2XdODp7fJLVp7GBA-bHFzvA/s400/stv1313_Update.jpg" border="0" /></a>Stevehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10350263587492672307noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5333671202679117845.post-7808633220183642092009-05-07T16:25:00.000-07:002009-05-14T15:39:05.299-07:001st Invitational Blogger Contest<div><div>So on Wednesday I had the opportunity to play in the 1st Invitational Blogger contest as the representative of Draftbug Millionaire. My competition included:</div><div><br /></div><div><ul><li>Alex Zelvin, ‘waiver wire’, The Waiver Wire, <a href="http://waiverwire.blogspot.com/">http://waiverwire.blogspot.com</a></li><li>Kyle Huberman, ‘icehube’, Draftbug Millionaire, <a href="http://draftbugmillionaire.blogspot.com/">http://draftbugmillionaire.blogspot.com</a></li><li>Dave Hall, ‘Roto Guru’, Roto Guru, <a href="http://www.rotoguru2.com/">http://www.rotoguru2.com</a></li><li>Troy Patterson, ‘TroyPatterson’, Rotosavants, <a href="http://www.rotosavants.com/">http://www.rotosavants.com</a></li><li>Sean, ‘scojo’, 27 Pitches, <a href="http://www.27pitches.com/">http://www.27pitches.com</a></li><li>Nick Cichielo, ‘Junkballers’, junkballers, <a href="http://www.junkballers.com/">http://www.junkballers.com</a></li><li>Mark Perry, ‘PokerBankrollBlog’, Poker Bankroll Blog, <a href="http://www.pokerbankrollblog.com/">http://www.pokerbankrollblog.com</a></li><li>Josh Culp, ‘Future of Fantasy’, Future of Fantasy, <a href="http://www.futureoffantasy.com/">http://www.futureoffantasy.com</a></li><li>Dan Williams, ‘TheInsidePitch’, The Inside Pitch, <a href="http://www.theinsidepitch.com/">http://www.theinsidepitch.com</a></li><li>Justin Hulsey, ‘JayHulsey’, Fandemonium Sports, <a href="http://fandemoniumsports.blogspot.com/">http://fandemoniumsports.blogspot.com</a></li><li>Paul Bourdett, ‘The Pick-up Artist’, Rotoexperts, <a href="http://www.rotoexperts.com/">http://www.rotoexperts.com</a></li><li>Mike, ‘bonds’, Winning at Fantasy Sports Live, <a href="http://winatfantasysportslive.com/">http://winatfantasysportslive.com</a></li><li>Steve Schroeder, ‘stv1313’, Steve’s Gambling Sketchbook, <a href="http://stevesketchbook.blogspot.com/">http://stevesketchbook.blogspot.com</a></li></ul></div><div><br /></div><div>I came in 3rd with 53 points, a successful night considering that all the participants are considered to be experts at this game and I still cant remember which Chicago team is in which league. My team that night was:</div><div><br /></div><div>OF Garret Anderson ATL</div><div>OF Nate McLouth PIT</div><div>OF Jody Gerut SDP</div><div>1B James Loney LOS</div><div>2B Orlando Hudson LOS</div><div>3B Chipper Jones ATL</div><div>SS Omar Infante ATL</div><div>C Bengie Molina SFG</div><div>SP Jake Peavy SDP</div><div>RP Jonathan Broxton LOS</div><div><br /></div><div>I obviously really liked Atlanta and Los Angles considering that their opposing pitchers had a combined era of 10.67. But the real decision that night (as is every night) was which pitcher to take; Peavy, Halladay, Santana, Lowe and Burnett were all available and some players even took Randy Johnson. My formula told me that Peavy and Santana was a coin flip, and unfortunately I picked the wrong guy. But honestly how do you pick Lowe, Burnett, or Johnson, when clearly there are better pitchers available? I don’t care that they were less expensive. The guaranteed strike out points alone will make up for the cost.</div><div><br /></div><div>I started this season of embarrassingly and now I’m slowly working my way back to even dollars on the seasons as my formula begins to benefit from seeing an increased number of At Bats. </div><div><br /></div></div>icehubehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08317761058791820452noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5333671202679117845.post-22083002536426435082009-05-03T18:13:00.000-07:002009-05-03T23:02:34.158-07:00Evaluating Relievers after One MonthIt is still early in the season, but after one month of games, top-tier relievers are getting out-performed by middle-tier relievers. Here is a look at the current Top 8 Relievers:<br /><br /><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgKDV7itvgoKAvOu8EsH9xvqkLLxAdTTR48JcIC6ozGVrpe7TTLWFOI0K8ryI0blqSjx8Tet20oTiIXpgjgpRIUBOGl7cBj7yrBfvS6LDCxH2WqIleO8R2avbJbWzdzWPEFENE4pesIzCo/s1600-h/currentTop8.jpg"><img style="margin: 0px auto 10px; display: block; text-align: center; cursor: pointer; width: 303px; height: 181px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgKDV7itvgoKAvOu8EsH9xvqkLLxAdTTR48JcIC6ozGVrpe7TTLWFOI0K8ryI0blqSjx8Tet20oTiIXpgjgpRIUBOGl7cBj7yrBfvS6LDCxH2WqIleO8R2avbJbWzdzWPEFENE4pesIzCo/s320/currentTop8.jpg" alt="" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5331840253547726978" border="0" /></a><br />As you can see, only one reliever in the current top performers is priced over $138. That being Jonathan Papelbon, and he is currently ranked 8th. What about the eight highest priced relievers? Here's a look at the highest priced relievers:<br /><br /><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEixPBK6Z4umGmEXntek5tkilO8b9Gc64eI-izOxu8o1paKBjBKM7bEuvnxrITrYlQYG2Z3XSGBHdg5VFjXtYU0wt2rrgB8U4xzhU5agqkMBhJpKHKKSEMupIncGES6sDvtKfIBdbYIUZ6s/s1600-h/top8relievers.jpg"><img style="margin: 0px auto 10px; display: block; text-align: center; cursor: pointer; width: 303px; height: 181px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEixPBK6Z4umGmEXntek5tkilO8b9Gc64eI-izOxu8o1paKBjBKM7bEuvnxrITrYlQYG2Z3XSGBHdg5VFjXtYU0wt2rrgB8U4xzhU5agqkMBhJpKHKKSEMupIncGES6sDvtKfIBdbYIUZ6s/s320/top8relievers.jpg" alt="" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5331839980437575714" border="0" /></a><br />As you can see, none of these high priced relievers have earned more than 67 Draftbug Points this season. Are the relievers priced wrong? Or is this going to even itself out by the end of the year? It's a little bit of both. I expect relievers like K-Rod and Mariano to get their usual amount of saves, but there will continue to be bargain closers the entire season. With Saves being so random, it is generally best to look through the bargain bin when choosing your relievers.Joshhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02932425247562242736noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5333671202679117845.post-2825134390565555012009-05-02T11:58:00.000-07:002009-05-02T12:08:28.989-07:00Ethier Ethier Ethier!!<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEie4YwSmpEukxFpsGqJaA4kApsQjYSEmw8EdWlSfmCkusOEKw2RnfhJHVT1zJAHiPRH_YVjNLHSUZbBIrk31LoMxo3pDI5O6fjk4mp0IaXRjtYtzkQw22IPtcDnskmXmOd04W9L9bChIXU/s1600-h/Ethier.bmp"><img id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5331305488746897618" style="FLOAT: right; MARGIN: 0px 0px 10px 10px; WIDTH: 162px; CURSOR: hand; HEIGHT: 226px" alt="" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEie4YwSmpEukxFpsGqJaA4kApsQjYSEmw8EdWlSfmCkusOEKw2RnfhJHVT1zJAHiPRH_YVjNLHSUZbBIrk31LoMxo3pDI5O6fjk4mp0IaXRjtYtzkQw22IPtcDnskmXmOd04W9L9bChIXU/s400/Ethier.bmp" border="0" /></a>If you're ever going to insert Andre Ethier into your active lineup, I can't think of a better time than now. This evening, Either's LA Dodgers face Chris Young and the San Diego Padres. Young is coming off his worst start of the season (against Colorado) and has a lifetime 5.71 ERA against Los Angeles.<br /><br />At the same time, Ethier has always had Young's number. Ethier is 9-for-23 lifetime against Young and has accumulated 4 HR's during that span. Considering the relatively modest price tag that comes with Ethier on Draftbug (154), I can't think of any good reason why Ethier shouldn't be in everyone's lineups tonight.<br /><br />Go Dodgers!Stevehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10350263587492672307noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5333671202679117845.post-60381682180477941082009-05-01T04:19:00.001-07:002009-05-01T04:23:36.206-07:00Mark Cuban's Sports Betting Hedge FundA number of years ago, Mark Cuban publicly said that he thought there was an opportunity for someone to create a sports betting hedge fund. As far as I know, the idea died when he took over ownership of the Dallas Mavericks. At the time, there wasn't even a suitable vehicle for such a fund, due to the ambiguous legal status of sports betting in the United States. However, I wonder if daily fantasy sports contests will eventually be appropriate for something like that. They offer a legal means of profiting from superior sports selections, a less efficient market than betting on major sports, and more opportunity to diversify picks within one day. All we need now is the publicity and traffic to be able to support the volume of picks a fund would have to make to be a worthwhile pursuit.Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5333671202679117845.post-63479443945105303682009-04-30T12:09:00.000-07:002009-04-30T12:27:08.363-07:00Average ScoreJust thought I would post some interesting numbers. Hypothesize what you want about them. I'll update these every few weeks as right now they are probably skewed by low counts (Each category has at least 4 instances).<div><br /><table style="text-align: center;" width="70%"><tbody><tr><td><b>Players</b></td><td><b> Avg. 1st Place Score</b></td></tr><tr><td>2</td><td>44</td></tr><tr><td>6</td><td>55</td></tr><tr><td>10</td><td>62</td></tr></tbody></table><br /><table style="text-align: center;" width="70%"><tbody><tr><td><b>Contest Cost</b></td><td><b> Avg. 1st Place Score</b></td></tr><tr><td>$1.00</td><td>48</td></tr><tr><td>$4.40</td><td>56</td></tr><tr><td>$5.50</td><td>51</td></tr><tr><td>$11.00</td><td>47</td></tr></tbody></table><br /><table style="text-align: center;" width="70%"><tbody><tr><td><b>Contest Prize Pool</b></td><td><b> Avg. 1st Place Score</b></td></tr><tr><td>$1.80</td><td>40</td></tr><tr><td>$5.40</td><td>50</td></tr><tr><td>$9.00</td><td>62</td></tr><tr><td>$10.00</td><td>48</td></tr><tr><td>$20.00</td><td>50</td></tr><tr><td>$24.00</td><td>55</td></tr></tbody></table><br /><table style="text-align: center;" width="70%"><tbody><tr><td><b>Contest Cap</b></td><td><b> Avg. 1st Place Score</b></td></tr><tr><td>1500</td><td>57</td></tr><tr><td>1600</td><td>54</td></tr><tr><td>1700</td><td>41</td></tr><tr><td>1800</td><td>65</td></tr></tbody></table></div>icehubehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08317761058791820452noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5333671202679117845.post-31128196761575259952009-04-26T06:29:00.000-07:002009-04-26T07:43:52.406-07:00A Few Thoughts . . .1. It's difficult to set a fantasy baseball lineup on Sunday. So many MLB teams use Sundays as "off days" for regular players - especially catchers. If you're going to play in a league on a Sunday, it's really important to check the posted lineups of early games to ensure someone isn't sitting it out. If you can find a Sunday fantasy lineup that doesn't have anyone sitting out, you're already ahead of the curve.<br /><br />2. The Brewers' Bill Hall is a stud against left-handed hitters. His line last was night was worthy of an all star: 3-for-6 with a home run, a stolen base, four RBI, and a run scored. Most of this productivity came against Houston's left handed-starter, Mike Hampton. Being from Milwaukee, I'm well aware of Bill Hall's prowess against left-handed pitchers - so I had him active in every league I played. At the same time, when the Brewers face a right-handed starter, I don't even glance in Hall's direction when creating my teams.<br /><br />3. What happened to John Beckett and A.J. Burnett yesterday? In a game projected to a be a pitcher's battle, the stat lines for these two pitchers was U-G-L-Y. Each pitcher only survived five innings and they both gave up 8 earned runs. If nothing else, the ineptidude of each pitcher allowed them both to escape without being credited with a loss. In Draftbug, Beckett earned -4 points. Ouch! Burnett barely did better, "earning" -1 points.Stevehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10350263587492672307noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5333671202679117845.post-73208018084550489682009-04-26T03:45:00.001-07:002009-04-26T03:53:23.420-07:00'Table Selection' For Daily Fantasy BaseballPro poker players sometimes talk about 'table selection'. Basically, the idea is to avoid playing against players who are better than you, and seek out players who are worse. In most cases, table selection will have more impact on results than any amount of practice. No matter how good you are, there's always someone better. And no matter how bad you are, there's always someone worse. <br /><br />The idea of table selection can be applied in several ways to Draftbug and other daily fantasy baseball contests.<br /><br />The first is very similar to how it's applied in poker. Take notes on your opponents, avoid those who are better players than you, and seek out games against those who are worse. While it's unlikely that you'll have enough contests against most opponents to be able to have statistically significant results, some players will be so weak that you can look at their picks and identify obvious bad picks and mistakes. I know that at least one of our group is taking detailed notes, and it's something that anyone truly seeking to become a professional should do.<br /><br />The second approach to table selection in daily fantasy contests is something that I've been doing. On days when I don't like the lineups I'm able to create, I'm playing much less heavily than on days when I do like the lineups. I'm averaging about $20 - $25 of contests, but on days when my top rated players are all expensive stars, and I expect my lineup to look just like everyone else's, I'm entering much less. On days when I can identify at least 2 or 3 players who I think are great bargains due to their matchups, I'm playing as much as $30 of contests.Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5333671202679117845.post-76656176349448992622009-04-25T03:49:00.001-07:002009-04-25T03:56:02.433-07:00Not a Millionaire Quite YetI'm not a millionaire quite yet. I have been doing pretty well though. At least until I went 0 for 3 ($27.50 total entry fees) yesterday. Steve's next post is going to include a summary of how all of us have been doing, but my ROI is still very high. One thing I've been doing is playing more heavily on the days where I like the picks available to me. Usually that means one or more teams have extremely favorable matchups for their hitters, allowing me to construct a nice lineup within the salary cap. Other days (like today) I'm playing in fewer contests and cheaper contests. $33 contests were added to Draftbug's contest 'menu' a few days ago, but so far I haven't had the guys (or the bankroll) to play in any. The highest buy-in I'm playing frequently are the three person $16.50 contests. The challenge with those is knowing whether to treat them strategically as if they were a heads up contest, or a larger multiplayer contest.Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5333671202679117845.post-62184607832557861952009-04-21T20:29:00.000-07:002009-04-21T20:44:30.858-07:00Four Days InFour days since joining Draftbug, I can't say that I've found much success so far. In particular, I haven't been able to select an effective starting pitcher to save my life. Even as I type, the pitcher I selected in most of my leagues this evening (Jake Peavy) just gave up a grand slam to Edgar Renteria. Ouch! During my first four days, I don't know if I've selected a pitcher who has earned a victory. That doesn't help!<br /><br />As Alex pointed out in an earlier post, he made over $50 yesterday - thanks partly to me. I thought I was looking pretty good when I went to bed with Arizona leading Colorado by 4 runs in the 7th inning and Alex's only hope of victory riding on the right arm of Chad Qualls. Unfortunately (for me), Colorado scored a single run in the 8th inning, giving Qualls the opportunity to earn a save for the Diamondbacks. The points Alex earned from Qualls were just enough to squeak past me in that tournament.<br /><br />Oh, well. I'll get you next time, Alex!<br /><br />Thru four days, my bankroll has suffered a hit of exactly $40. Surprisingly, I'm not discouraged. Once I start hitting some points from a starting pitcher, I'm confident that I'll start winning consistently.<br /><br />If nothing else, this website has allowed me to become reaquainted with Microsoft Access, which I hadn't used in awhile. I'm tracking all my tournament results with this software. What is everyone else using?<br /><br /><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhRqy07GRGaRa5N_AQ3bG_mIRhFkyCuvPTwLeWkShbEtlOEoWGLLFSDD0h9wAX0YowFCLqudKCjhgyk5CYoFtx2Gz1Gsu1e4uGuTcLyHiag5bjlbDjI9fJ6u45IJrsC4p4lcr4tItX1AkM/s1600-h/42109Results.jpg"><img id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5327352928699186162" style="DISPLAY: block; MARGIN: 0px auto 10px; WIDTH: 318px; CURSOR: hand; HEIGHT: 222px; TEXT-ALIGN: center" alt="" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhRqy07GRGaRa5N_AQ3bG_mIRhFkyCuvPTwLeWkShbEtlOEoWGLLFSDD0h9wAX0YowFCLqudKCjhgyk5CYoFtx2Gz1Gsu1e4uGuTcLyHiag5bjlbDjI9fJ6u45IJrsC4p4lcr4tItX1AkM/s400/42109Results.jpg" border="0" /></a>Stevehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10350263587492672307noreply@blogger.com3tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5333671202679117845.post-18971877502630336022009-04-21T12:57:00.001-07:002009-04-22T11:07:46.479-07:00Predicting Homeruns in April<span>So at the beginning of the season I entered into 4 April Home Run Derby’s at <a href="http://www.draftbug.com">Draft Bug</a> for a total of $17 + Freeroll and I haven't really looked at them since entering, so I thought now was as good a time as any. </span><br /><br /><span>I’m 1st in 2 of them (4 and 6 person), 6th in a 23 person and 14th in the 200 person Freeroll. Pretty decent considering I had no idea who to take, so all I did was guess who would finish with the most HR’s and pick them. The numbers below suggest that was a terrible strategy.</span><br /><br /><span><img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-68" title="Home Runs in April and 2088" src="http://www.kylehuberman.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/04/picture-1.png" alt="Home Runs in April and 2088" width="380" /></span><br /><br /><span><span>In 2007 of the top 15 in the month of April, 5 were in the top 12 of 2007. In 2008 it was worse with only Quentin being in the top 12 of both April and 2008. How many HR you have in April has very little bering where you place for total HR. So picking your team based on total season HR is a very poor strategy. I would not be surprised if over the last 10 or so days in April if I began to fall and didn't place in any of them. </span></span>icehubehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08317761058791820452noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5333671202679117845.post-47206752978617685942009-04-21T03:12:00.000-07:002009-04-21T03:21:48.224-07:00My First $50+ Winning DayWith only seven games scheduled yesterday, one of those too early to be included in Draftbug contests, and four of the remaining six threatened by rain, there were all sorts of interesting strategic issues to deal with. I ended up playing in much higher value contests than normal, because I saw what I believed to be an unusually profitable opportunity. The same player had entered a $22 heads up contest, an $11 heads up, and a $16.50 three person contest. He's someone who I believe is knowledgeable, but usually enters early and doesn't seem to be logged in that much during the day. My thinking was that if he ignored the weather report I would probably sweep him away in all the contests, while if he did pay attention to it, we'd still on relatively even footing. I selected only hitters in the two games that were sure to be played, but choosing starting pitchers was a little tougher. Lowe was the clear standout, and I knew the Atlanta game might happen. In the end I used Lowe in the three person contest (where I thought a higher score might be needed) and Arroyo (who I knew would get to pitch) in the other two contest. It ended up working out well as all three of us picked Lowe in the multi, while Arroyo outpitched Lowe. Things were complicated a little when Steve became the third player in the $16.50, but everything still went according to plan as I won all three contests. Total entry fees: $49.50. Total prizes: $105. Cumulative entry fees: $174.40. Cumulative prizes: $275.25. ROI: 57.8%.Unknownnoreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5333671202679117845.post-9388836349926706732009-04-20T02:52:00.000-07:002009-04-20T02:57:54.638-07:00Quick Results UpdateHere's a quick update on results over the weekend. I entered five contests on Saturday and just one on Sunday. I won a four person winner take all ($4.40), tied for first in a 6 person $1 contest, and won yesterday's contest (which was a 6 person $5.50). Entry fees: $28.50. Prizes: $38.20. Cumulative total fees to date: $124.90. Cumulative prizes to date: $170.25. Return On Investment: 26.6%.Unknownnoreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5333671202679117845.post-45450331624611852122009-04-19T20:26:00.000-07:002009-04-19T20:28:34.343-07:00Week 2: Bankroll ManagementThe lesson learned from Week 2 is the importance of Bankroll Management. I have entered 27 2-Player Contest this year. I have scored under 30 points in 5 of those contests. Of course three of those came on the day I decided to enter contests with higher entry fees. <br /><br />It is for that very reason that you can't put all your eggs in one basket. Luckily, I only had $22 invested on this day of struggling. Even the most accurate of models will struggle from time to time. Although this was a hit to my bankroll, it was not devastating. The terrible day on Saturday set me back, but here are some of my stats through two weeks of the season:<br /><br />Week 1 Average Team Score: 54.3<br />Week 2 Average Team Score: 35.9<br />Overall Average Team Score: 43.4<br /><br />Overall Opponent's Average Team Score: 37.9<br /><br />Outscoring my opponent by 5.5 points per contest should yield profitable results in the long run.Joshhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02932425247562242736noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5333671202679117845.post-64896129882959058282009-04-19T03:17:00.000-07:002009-04-19T03:21:30.428-07:00Introducing Steve SchroederWe're happy to introduce a new member of the Draftbug Millionaire team. Steve Schroeder entered his first real money contests at Draftbug yesterday, and proceeded to crush me in a $7.70 contest that we both ended up in. Here's what he had to say about himself:<br /><br /><em>Hello world!<br /><br />My name is Steve Schroeder and I’ll be playing as stv1313 on Draftbug. If you see me online, feel free to say ‘hi!’ Born and raised in Milwaukee, I have been actively playing fantasy sports since 1993. In that year, I played my 1st fantasy football league and took Barry Sanders in the 1st round. It was a TD only league, and Mr. Sanders only scored 3 TD’s that season. I’ve never liked Barry since.<br /><br />Since then, I’ve played almost every fantasy sport imaginable. Even as I type this entry, I’m an active participant in fantasy baseball, golf, and NASCAR leagues. Apparently, my life is just a fantasy! I also enjoy online poker and I’ll make a wager on almost anything imaginable during my day-to-day life.<br /><br />Approximately 18 months ago, I discovered the exciting world of online fantasy sports. Playing at another online site, I found great success playing football, basketball, and baseball. In 18 months, I accumulated a bankroll of over $3,500, despite the fact that I never deposited a penny at that site. I’ve used those winnings to purchase a freestanding Ms. Pac Man machine for my wife and the remaining loot has been set aside for a trip to Vegas to play in the World Series of Poker in June. It’ll feel good to play on a “freeroll” while in Sin City!<br /><br />Unfortunately, my previous fantasy site isn’t offering baseball this season, so that’s brought me to Draftbug. I look forward to seeing if my previous success carries over to this new site. Can I turn another nonexistent bankroll into over $3,500 again? Only time will tell!<br />I’m looking forward to sharing ideas and feedback with y'all. I’ve already read all of the posts on this site and I can’t wait to contribute. Let’s have some fun, win some money, and enjoy the ride!</em>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5333671202679117845.post-77517832598143800422009-04-18T12:52:00.000-07:002009-04-18T13:16:42.651-07:00Week #2: Better than the FirstSo after an embarrassing week #1, the second week was much more optimistic. As my ROI table shows.<br /><br /><img src="http://www.pixeldesigns.ca/db/roi1.png" align="right" style="margin: 15px;" />I had a small but positive ROI and helped reduce my total debt. It’ll probably still take me at least another 2 weeks to get back to par, but that’s what I deserve after being over anxious to start the season. My week one average score was 32.2, while my week two average score was 45.7, a significant improvement.<br /><br />From here on in I’m going to be referring to my mathematical/statistical system of picking players as “Sharon”. My friend coined the name, and it gives a humanistic touch to what would otherwise be just a formula.<br /><br />I’ve also decided not to calculate and use freeroll percentage as a measurement of success. It's a bad idea as the freeroll has a different points limit and often includes players from earlier games which I do not pick in my late game. My new target is 45 points every night.<br /><br /><a href="http://www.pixeldesigns.ca/db/results2.png"><img src="http://www.pixeldesigns.ca/db/results2_pre.png" /></a><br /><br /><img src="http://www.pixeldesigns.ca/db/iloveyouman.jpeg" align="right" style="margin: 15px;" />Among a number of other things, this week I learned that fantasy baseball comes down to pitchers and for me that means Jonathon Broxton. Broxton is my rock and my redeemer and now I have a huge man crush on him. Below is my story.<br /><br /><em>Saturday 11th:</em><br />Solid day all round. I went with the Padres combo of Peavy and Bell and it paid off big. With a couple of points from McCann, I would have placed in the Freeroll. Great start to the week.<br /><br /><em>Sunday 12th:</em><br />In an attempt to make sure that I do not take any players who are not in the opening lineup, I decided not to play on Monday. All the games were spread throughout the day, so I couldn't check the lineups. <br /><br /><em>Monday 13th:</em><br />I got caught up in the La Russa blender. Again. I really need to learn. I’ve decided the only Cardinal I’m every playing is Pujols, unless I see the lineup card before the game. I won one of my three contests. <br /><br /><img src="http://www.pixeldesigns.ca/db/matsuzaka.jpeg" align="right" style="margin: 15px;" /><em>Tuesday 14th:</em><br />I am such a slow and stubborn person, Fool me once shame on you, fool me twice, shame on me. Matsuzaka will never have a place on my roster again. I will learn. I promise. I had a discussion with Alex about my pick of Matsuzaka and here are the reason why Sharon decided to take him: <br /><br />1. Oakland is a terrible hitting team, both this year and last. <br />2. He's going to get lots of run support. So even if he gives up 4 or 5 runs, its not a huge deal. <br />3. Only 6 times last year in 29 starts, and 7 times in 2007 (in 32 starts) did he have 3 or less strikeouts. He averages 5.7 SO a game. Oakland is 9th in the league in SO, and was 4th last year. Sharon figured she was going to get at least 6 from him. <br />4. He averaged 5.7 Innings per start last year, and 6.3 the year before. Sharon thought 6 innings from him would be fine. <br />Boston had a really good chance of winning that game. <br /><br />Here are the reasons not to take him:<br /><br />1. He’s terrible. <br /><br /><em>Wednesday 15th:</em><br />Here where my infatuation with Broxton begins. With Lowe only giving me 5 innings and the Braves giving him no run support, I needed big points from Broxton. So he said, “No problem Kyle” and he came through with the win. Oh Yah, Kinsler had a big game to. Kinsler + Broxton = Money in the Bank<br /><br /><em>Thursday 16th:</em><br />Solid day thanks to the Doc but I played some really stiff competition and did’nt place in any of my competitions. I really like picking Guerrero, but unfortunately I missed the fact that he went out prior to the game with an injury. You may notice that Broxton did'nt get me any points, but this is not his fault. What business do the Dodgers have being up by 5 in the 9th and bringing in Ohman?<br /><br /><img src="http://www.pixeldesigns.ca/db/broxton.jpeg" align="right" style="margin: 15px;"/><em>Friday 17th:</em><br />Sharon really liked the Royals matchup against the Texans, especially for the cost of the players. The Royals put up 12 runs and 19 hits. So that was a positive. Oh yah, Broxton, another 15+ point night and the Save. His season stat line? 6.2 IP 1 H 1 ER 0 BB 11 SO 1 W 4 SV, for a total of 67 Fantasy Points.icehubehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08317761058791820452noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5333671202679117845.post-43910390600849137052009-04-18T03:18:00.000-07:002009-04-18T03:26:13.424-07:00High Stakes Fantasy BaseballOk...not exactly high stakes. Not yet. That's going to take some time, both for us to build up our bankrolls and for there to be enough traffic to support higher stakes contests. I had my best day yet though. I entered 4 contests (total entry fees $16.40). I won three - a $5.50 heads up, a $5.50 4 person winner take all, and a $4.40 6 person contest. I also came in 2nd in a 10 person $1 contest. Total prizes amounted to $48.30. Cumulative entry fees to date: $96.40. Cumulative prizes: $132.05. ROI: 37%. My pitching was bad again, as Shields struggled and my relievers didn't get into the game, but I was saved by a big Tampa Bay comeback that gave Shields the win and a respectable score.Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5333671202679117845.post-58594365085707479582009-04-15T03:20:00.000-07:002009-04-15T03:29:53.586-07:004/14: Results...Back in the RedI couldn't help myself. I thought I'd start my hiatus from playing yesterday (since I'll be away most of today and tomorrow), but couldn't resist the juicy matchup that the Texas hitters offered. They managed to knock Simon out of the game after an inning and a third, so my opinion was more or less justified. My pitchers were (yet again) less successful. I used Vazquez on every team, and he allowed three runs and lost despite striking out a dozen batters. None of the various closers I used got a save. I'm going to chalk it up to variance (mostly), but I already knew that my calculations for pitchers aren't as sophisticated as what I'm doing for hitters, so I'll probably work on improving what I've got for the pitchers first. I won a pair of heads up $5.50 contests, and was 2nd in a $3.30 6 person contest. I also finished out of the money in another 6 person contest and a 10 person contest. Entry fees: $18.60. Prizes: $26.30. Cumulative entry fees: $80.00. Cumulative prizes: $83.55. Return on Investment: 4.4%.Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5333671202679117845.post-75754430906174873452009-04-14T01:51:00.000-07:002009-04-14T01:59:51.156-07:004/12-4/13: Results. Variance or Lack of Skill?Over the past two two combined, I've entered 8 contests of various types (2 heads up, 3 six person, 3 ten person) for a total of $25.00 and managed only a tied for second place in one of the ten person contests. Total prizes: $2.25. Total invested to date is $61.40, total prizes to date are $57.25. Return on investment is -6.8%. For the most part, my chances were killed by the poor performances by Tim Lincecum and Kevin Slowey the past two days. I knew that by using the same starting pitcher in most contests I was taking a 'feast or famine' approach, but felt that Lincecum was such a clear standout and Slowey such a good value at the price that it was worth it. My sample size is very small so far. I think this is variance more than a true indication of my ability to win with my current methods. That said, why leave things to chance. I know of lots I can do to improve my projections, and need to put aside some time to begin making changes. I'll be away Wednesday and Thursday, but will try to put some of the changes into place over the weekend.Unknownnoreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5333671202679117845.post-49541406298605069002009-04-12T17:56:00.000-07:002009-04-12T18:15:54.853-07:00Week 1 Analysis: Find your StrengthsWithout any prior experience in daily fantasy baseball contests, I've decided to take it slow while I get my feet wet and tweak my approach. However, I would consider week one a success. I've entered 13 contests, won 7 of them, lost 4 and placed in the remaining two. Here is a breakdown of the type of contests I've entered and my record for them:<br /><br />2 Player Salary Cap: 3-3 , <span style="color: rgb(255, 0, 0);">-$3.80</span><br />2 Player Live Draft: 4-0 , $8.10<br />10 Player Salary Cap: 0-1-1, $0.70<br />6 Player Salary Cap: 0-0-1, $5.00<br /><br />Overall Week 1 Record: 7-4-2 , $10.00<br /><br /><br />In Week One I wagered an average of just over $5.00 per day, with a total of $35.80 wagered and $10.00 of net profit. Equaling a return on investment of 28%. Although it's a small sample size, I am 4-0 in 2 Player Live Draft contests. I think it's important for anyone who is serious about Draftbug to keep records. This will allow you to find what game formats you excel at, or even find opponents who are above par.Joshhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02932425247562242736noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5333671202679117845.post-25516620799267146422009-04-11T21:23:00.000-07:002009-04-11T11:24:15.976-07:00The 1st Five Days = Rough<div style="text-align: left;">I’m not sure yet how I want to present these updates, so bare with me over the next few weeks while I figure this whole thing out.</div><div><br /><img style="float:right; margin:0 0 10px 10px;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 250px;" src="http://www.milliondollarthinker.com/wp-content/uploads/2008/05/badday.jpg" border="0" alt="" />To summarize the 1st five days as nothing but fantastic would be a complete lie. They were rough, and probably to be expected. My system was working wonders in basketball, but thats because I had a whole season behind me to use as a model for future games, as opposed to in baseball where I’m relying on previous years stats, which do not necessarily predict the next season as well.<br /><br />Below is a summary of my teams over the last 5 days. The second column after the players name is their cost and the third is the points they received that night. The “Freeroll Percentile” is what my percentile finish in the daily freeroll would be with my team. For example if I placed 14th out of 30 players, I’m in the 53 percentile, implying that if played 100 2 player games I would win 53 of them. The reason I’m doing this is to see how I fare against everyone. I could easily win a single game for $50 with a total score of 20, if my opponents score was 19, but that’s just luck, not skill. I’m striving for about 75% on a consistent basis, allowing me to play 4 games a day and projected to win 3. Finally the +/- money line, just shows how much I’ve bet, won/lost, and the difference between them.<br /><br />Note: I can't pick the same team in every contest, due to cap limit differences. The teams below are my “primary” teams- the team I use for the draft were I wager the most amount of money, which usually has the strictest cap. My other teams only ever differ by one or two players.<br /><br /><a href="http://www.pixeldesigns.ca/db/results1.png"><img src="http://www.pixeldesigns.ca/db/results1.png" /></a><br /><br /></div><div><br />Yah, not so amazing.<br /><br /><b><i>Monday 6th:<br /></i></b>Pretty decent, not much to comment on. Can’t be happen with Morneau at -1 and Lee at 0, but it will happen.<br /><br /><b><i>Tuesday 7th:<br /></i></b>LaRussa decided to blend his batting order as <a href="http://www.stltoday.com/stltoday/sports/columnists.nsf/jeffgordon/story/B70C1AD42C378DBC8625759000382D6D?OpenDocument">he’ll do often this season</a>, and Ludwick got left out. Your not going to win any games with five players with 0 points. I was very happy with Bedard’s 14 point performance for a 10 unit cap hit.<br /><br /><b><i>Wednesday 8th:<br /></i></b>Another bad day. Kazmir had 79% of all my points.<br /><br /><b><i>Thursday 9th:<br /></i></b>Simply embarrassing. I nailed Scutaro and Beniji Molina, and then proceeded to crap the bed with Polanco, Guerrero, Wells, Crede, Matsuzaka, and Bobby Jenks.<br /><br /><b><i>Friday 10th:<br /></i></b>The main troubling spot was that in the first four days I picked five people who were not in the opening line up. So on Friday I made a point of not only checking every 5 minutes for lineup updates, but I also refused to take any CIN or PIT players as I was worried about the possibility of a rain out, which did occur.<br /><br />I got beat in three games including the Freeroll on Friday due to the extended rainout in Atlanta and Lowe not retuning to the game to collect his win where he had 6 SO in 3 Innings and was leading 3-1. Also some of my sneaky competition had selected R.A. Dickey as their RP even though he was starting and was able to pick up real cheap innings and a win. </div><div><br /></div><div>By the way props to Kaiseroll13 who destroyed me every day this week. It really didn't take much, but good for him for beating me up. </div>icehubehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08317761058791820452noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5333671202679117845.post-18095324858599635352009-04-11T03:45:00.000-07:002009-04-11T03:59:08.542-07:00Friday 4/10 Results - Shawn Hill and Rate of ReturnAfter my day off on Thursday, I played in five contests on Friday - 2 10 player $1 contests, 2 heads up $3.30 contests, and a 4 player winner take all $3.30. Rainouts and rain delays played a huge role in all contests, and overall helped me, as I had steered clear of the games I thought most likely to be rained out, and seemed to be one of the people with no Cincinnati players. While I had Lowe on many teams, his getting pulled after a long rain delay in the fourth inning didn't hurt much, because many of my opponents had him as well. I came in 2nd in one of the 10 player contests (thank you Shawn Hill), and won one of the heads up contests and the 4 player contest. Total investment $11.90, amount won $20.70. Cumulative total so far this season is now $36.40 invested, and $55.50 gross winnings ($19.10 net profit), for a return on investment of 52%. That's definitely an unsustainable rate of return, but still a very encouraging start. To things I've noticed are that most people are not watching the weather report closely enough, and most people clearly haven't read or have chosen to ignore the articles I've written on strategy for multi-player contests. That's part of the reason why I'm very comfortable talking about many of my strategies...I know that even those who do read what I have to say will often ignore it, so I won't have much impact on how tough my competition is.<br /><br />I probably won't get to play in any contests today, and may not on Sunday either. Have I mentioned how incredibly relaxing and fun I'm finding it playing in a game where I can set my daily lineups to exploit favorable matchups, but can just skip days whenever it's convenient for me?Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0